7 Energy Efficiency Myths Debunked: Guest Analysis

• energy
• fuel economy
• alternative energy
• oil

1. Energy independence will mean better energy security for the U.S.

After the hurricanes of 2005 ravaged New Orleans and other areas along the Gulf of Mexico, several damaged refineries in the region were unable to operate. Within a few days of the storm, gasoline shortages hit several southern U.S. cities. The shortages were, thankfully, short-lived. The reason: imported gasoline.

By mid-October 2005, just six weeks after Hurricane Katrina, gasoline imports had soared from 1 million barrels (or less) per day to 1.5 million barrels per day, the highest level recorded up to that time by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) since it began tracking these imports in 1982. Without gasoline from refineries in Venezuela, the Netherlands and elsewhere, the post-Katrina shortages would surely have continued.

Global commodities markets, like the one for oil, are famous for volatility and sensitivity to world events—even domestic events such as Katrina. To mitigate these effects and to ensure long-term economic security, the United States has no choice but to buy the gasoline it needs on the global market.

2. Greater efficiency results in lower energy consumption and, therefore, will hasten the day of energy independence.

History shows that as the U.S. economy has grown more energy efficient, energy consumption has continued to climb. In 1980, the U.S. was using about 15,000 Btu per dollar of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2004, the energy intensity of the U.S. economy had improved dramatically, so that just over 9000 Btu were required for each dollar of GDP. By 2030, the EIA projects that energy intensity will fall to about 5800 Btu per dollar of GDP. But even with that dramatic increase in efficiency, the EIA predicts that overall energy consumption in the U.S. will increase by more than 30 percent, rising from 100.1 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 131.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. (A quadrillion Btu is equal to about 172 million barrels of crude oil.)

3. Federal mandates for higher-mileage cars will result in less fuel consumption, thereby reducing the need for imported oil.

Dramatic increases in America’s automobile fuel efficiency will likely only slow the rate of growth of imported oil. Even if Congress mandated that the domestic auto fleet boost its average fuel economy to 44 mpg—a major increase over the 27.5 mpg standard in effect in 2007—America’s motor fuel consumption will still grow by 3.7 million barrels per day by 2025.

Why? America’s motor fleet is so huge that replacing it with a more efficient fleet will take decades. In 2005 (the last year for which statistics are available), the U.S. had 247.4 million registered motor vehicles—more than double the number in 1970. And Americans are keeping their vehicles longer, which means that older, less efficient cars will stay on the road for substantially longer periods. The reason is simple: Today’s cars are of much higher quality than they were two decades ago.

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